A pathetic victory and its aftermath

AND finally, the verdict has come. Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) has won a simple majority in the most closely and fiercely fought Assembly election in Kerala’s political history by bagging 72 seats out of the total 140. The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by the CPI(M), is closely behind with 68 seats. With the new rulers all set to take over in a few days from now, it will be interesting to examine what the future holds for the country’s most politically sensitive state.

Given the political constitution of the UDF, which is led by the Congress, this is not definitely a comfortable, workable majority. Also, it’s not a mandate for change altogether, nor is it a verdict for the status quo. An ever-belligerent V S Achuthanandan, who led the charge for the LDF, has been able to weather and even neutralise the anti-incumbency factor to a large extent. Further, the election campaign has exposed many a chink in the armour of the Congress. There was a unique situation where both the Opposition Leader and the Pradesh Congress Committee chief are in the fray. Even the stand-in captaincy of Union Defence Minister A K Antony has failed to catapult the UDF into a comfortable tally.

Interestingly, the CPI(M) has emerged as the single largest party in the 13th Kerala Assembly, winning 45 seats while the Congress has ended up with just 38 seats. The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a UDF constituent, has won 20 of the 24 seats it contested. The Kerala Congress (Mani), another UDF ally, has managed to win nine seats. The Congress has no MLAs from four districts. Also, the LDF has managed to establish a clear led in eight of the 14 districts. LDF’s clean sweep in the districts of Kollam and Alappuzha and also its domination in Pathanamthitta clearly show that the last minute manipulative shift in the equidistance policy of the NSS in favour of the UDF has had no impact on the voting pattern. But at the same time, Kottayam district has reaffirmed its well-known status as a ‘political parish’.

As every single MLA counts in the given situation, it is just a matter of time before the UDF allies come up with unreasonable demands including undue numbers of Cabinet berths, key portfolios and even deputy chief ministership. Undoubtedly, it is going to be a stormy, bumpy ride for the Congress leadership.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that Oommen Chandy is not very much willing to accept the CM’s position in the current scenario. In fact, what haunts the post-Karunakaran Congress the most is the dearth of leaders with manipulative and persuasive skills that would match his. Compared to the Congress, the leadership of the IUML and KC(M) are stronger and well-knit. They are more than capable of serving as powerful pressure groups within the coalition, extracting whatever they want. Needless to say, stability of governance will be at stake big time.

K M Mani has already fired the first salvo declaring publicly that he had to pay a heavy political price to the Congress on account of his party’s merger with the faction led by P J Joseph. P C George, Mani’s own protégé, followed suit taking a dig at the ‘decrepit invalids’ (read K R Gowri and M V Raghavan) who contested and lost. Of course, all these bickerings are just the dress rehearsal for the wider farce that is soon to be played out.

At the end of the day, the UDF has ‘suffered’ a pathetic victory and the LDF has ‘won’ a gracious defeat. Though the LDF has fallen short of a simple majority by a whisker, V S Achuthanandan emerges as a grand, majestic figure, nay, a superpower, in the post-poll scenario of the state as well as in the internal politics of the CPI(M). Those who are preparing to lead the new government should remember that V S the opposition leader will be many times more powerful than V S the chief minister.

A dirty game

Kerala has the significant, if not dubious, distinction of being the most politicised state in the country. Every major development in any corner of the world would be debated vigorously and at length in the state’s intellectual and social circles. But now, with the elections to the state Assembly having been notified (the state will go to the polls on April 13), a curious phenomenon has emerged. Sleaze, corruption and probity in politics have grabbed the centre stage of the state’s pre-poll discourse as never before.

For decades, Kerala’s political scene has been dominated by two coalitions: the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the CPI(M) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). And the electorate is known for changing their preference between these two every five years. This time too, the opposition UDF had a clear edge until a few weeks ago, after decisive wins in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and the local body polls held late last year.

All hell broke loose with a couple of ‘revelations’ made by K A Rauf, a businessman, hardly a month prior to the declaration of the election dates. Rauf is a close relative of P K Kunhalikutty, a prominent leader of the Indian Union Muslim League which is a major constituent of the UDF. He alleged that the ice cream parlour sex racket case involving Kunhalikutty had been sabotaged by bribing the witnesses, victims and even two judges of the High Court of Kerala. Some video footages too appeared on a local TV channel in support of Rauf’s claims.

Immediately after this episode, R Balakrishna Pillai, another UDF leader, was sentenced to a year of rigorous imprisonment by the Supreme Court in a graft case. A ‘hero’s welcome’ was accorded to Pillai by the UDF in Kottarakkara, his home town, which in turn led to a still bigger row. K Sudhakaran, the Congress MP from Kannur who spoke at the meeting, claimed that he was witness to an episode where a Supreme Court judge had accepted bribe to reinstate the pub licences quashed by the Kerala High Court in the early 90s. Several questions were raised on the MP’s own role in the murky deal and a New Delhi-based lawyers’ organisation has moved a contempt of court petition against him before the Supreme Court.

Close on the heels of this controversy, Congress leader and former state civil supplies minister T H Musthafa, who is also an accused in the palm oil import graft case, filed a discharge petition before the Vigilance court in Thiruvananthapuram. In the petition, Musthafa contended that the decision to import palm oil was a collective one of the state cabinet, which was taken to mean that he alone should not be targeted because the-then finance minister and present leader of opposition Oommen Chandy was left out from the list of the accused.

The ruling LDF, which was clearly on the back foot facing a strong anti-incumbency mood after a series of electoral reverses, seized the opportunity and launched a fresh offensive against the opposition citing all these episodes. The UDF, deeply perturbed by this sudden avalanche of setbacks, had to go on the defensive for some time in between. But in a week, they started the counter-offensive by directly targeting chief minister V S Achuthanandan and his son V A Arunkumar, a state government official. The strategy was to ruin the image of the chief minister who commands mass appeal. And the game of mudslinging is going on and on.

Interestingly, both the fronts are yet to come up with their manifestos. Still it looks as if the agenda for the campaign has already been set. Dirt is mounting every passing day, with debates on TV and other public venues turning into slinging matches. The mega scams reported at the national level too are figuring in the debates.

This sharp shift in focus has generated a counter-debate in the social circles. A Catholic archbishop from south Kerala came up with an observation that it is more advisable to support atheists who adhere to values rather than tainted believers in the elections. It may be noted that the Christian minority has always been a reliable support base for the UDF.

Needless to say, this kind of negativism effectively edges out any healthy debate on crucial issues in the run-up to the elections. Several key sectors in the state like education, health, industry etc still lack reform-oriented development.